Most people in the third world don’t think it’s a priority with poverty threatening our dreams and ambitions. Our motivations were effectively engaged elsewhere, and that was before Corona. We have been ambushed by global pandemic that with the vantage of hindsight was foreseeable. Let’s take a look at the next economic disaster that is also predictable, climate change.
So, let’s start simple, climate change is the alteration of average weather conditions such as temperature and rainfall over the period of a long time.
The sea is coming for us
We begin at my current residence, Mombasa. Global warming leads to melting ice at the poles resulting into rise in sea level projected to be 0.3 to 1.5 metres. To put this into context, just a rise of 0.3 metres will mean 20% of Mombasa will be submerged underwater.
Let’s dwell further into the fishing industry in coast province. High temperatures will lead to fish either diving deeper or outright swim to cooler temperatures away from the tropics. The latter is most likely.
The elephant in the room
What’s happening in the coast is small talk compared to the agricultural sectors influence in the economy. Agriculture contributes:
24% directly to the GDP.
27% indirectly through linkages
60% of employment
Approximately 45% of government revenue
75% industrial raw materials
Supports 80% of the population
While it is clear that agriculture is our greatest strength, our Achilles heel is laid bare by the fact that 70% of Kenyan agriculture is rain fed. Did you know that 1-degree increase in climate temperature will lead to NO tea production in Kenya? Already yields have been taking a hit due to high temperatures. That’s 126 billion worth of exports subtracted from the GDP. Climate change should make all of us nervous.
Funds lost to disaster
Whenever there is a drought or flood, the government has to fork out money in terms of disaster management. A couple of millions worth off damage here and there ends up with a significant blow to long term growth. In fact, on average, since 1997, every seven years Kenya experiences a flood that costs 5.5% of GDP and every 5 years we experience a drought that costs us 8% percent of GDP. This all translates to a long-term liability if 2.4% of GDP per annum. That’s 16 billion per year. Climate change has already been costing us and to a large extent, we have ourselves to blame.
What about Covid 19?
Compared to climate change covid 19 may look like the bigger monster but it is inevitable that we will recover from the pandemic. Unfortunately, climate change offers no such promise. The global halt in aviation and radical decline in industrial carbon emission which was once deemed impossible has been gifted to us. Therefore, as we gradually get back to normal it is important to play the long game, and take advantage of the silver lining the pandemic has given us.
